What you will bill twelve months from now
A client roster stops growing when arrivals match departures, so the ceiling is new clients per month divided by the monthly dropout rate. With 4 new clients a month and 10% dropping out, the roster settles at 40 clients, no matter how many you start with. At a fee of 80, that is 3,200 a month.
The formula
Steady roster = New clients per month ÷ Monthly dropout rate · Revenue = Roster × Monthly fee
What each variable means
- New clients per month
- Real sign-ups over recent months, averaged. Using your best month inflates the whole projection.
- Monthly dropout rate
- What share of your clients stops paying each month. 10% means 4 out of 40 leave.
- Average monthly fee
- What a client pays per month on average, blending plans and discounts.
Precomputed values
| New clients per month | 5% dropout | 10% dropout | 15% dropout | 20% dropout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 40 | 20 | 13 | 10 |
| 4 | 80 | 40 | 27 | 20 |
| 6 | 120 | 60 | 40 | 30 |
| 8 | 160 | 80 | 53 | 40 |
At 4 sign-ups a month, going from 20% dropout to 10% takes the roster from 20 to 40 clients. That is the same effect as doubling sign-ups, and it costs a good deal less.
Run it on your numbers
How to read the result
The surprising part is that where you start does not change the ceiling. Beginning with 10 clients or with 60 leads to the same place if arrivals and departures hold: only the time it takes changes. Moving the ceiling has two levers, getting more sign-ups or losing fewer clients, and the second is usually cheaper than the first.
Assumptions and limits
- It assumes even arrivals and departures month to month. Real seasonality in January and over holidays is not modelled.
- The average fee is held constant. If you raise prices during the period, the result comes out low.
- Dropouts apply evenly across the roster, though in practice new clients leave more than long-standing ones do.
